Are exports and imports of Chile cointegrated?

This study examines the long-run relationship between Chilean exports and imports during the 1975-2004 period using unit root tests and cointegration techniques that allow for endogenously determined structural breaks. The results indicate that there exists a long-run equilibrium between exports and imports in Chile, despite the balance-of-payments crisis of 1982-83. This finding implies that Chile\'s macroeconomic policies have been effective in the long-run and suggests that Chile is not in violation of its international budget constraint.Exports, imports, cointegration, structural break, Chile

Comment: Citation Statistics

We discuss the paper "Citation Statistics" by the Joint Committee on Quantitative Assessment of Research [arXiv:0910.3529]. In particular, we focus on a necessary feature of "good" measures for ranking scientific authors: that good measures must able to accurately distinguish between authors.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-STS285B the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Spatial Corrections of ROSAT HRI Observations

X-ray observations with the ROSAT High Resolution Imager (HRI) often have spatial smearing on the order of 10 arcsec (Morse 1994). This degradation of the intrinsic resolution of the instrument (5 arcsec) can be attributed to errors in the aspect solution associated with the wobble of the space craft or with the reacquisition of the guide stars. We have developed a set of IRAF/PROS and MIDAS/EXSAS routines to minimize these effects. Our procedure attempts to isolate aspect errors that are repeated through each cycle of the wobble. The method assigns a 'wobble phase' to each event based on the 402 second period of the ROSAT wobble. The observation is grouped into a number of phase bins and a centroid is calculated for each sub-image. The corrected HRI event list is reconstructed by adding the sub-images which have been shifted to a common source position. This method has shown approx. 30% reduction of the full width half maximum (FWHM) of an X-ray observation of the radio galaxy 3C 120. Additional examples are presented.Comment: AandA latex (6 pages with 7 embedded postscript figures). Scheduled for publication in the 1 Dec issue of Astron. Astrophys. Suppl. Serie

Export Diversification, Externalities and Growth

It is frequently suggested that export diversification contributes to an acceleration of growth in developing countries. Horizontal export diversification into completely new export sectors may generate positive externalities on the rest of the economy as export oriented sectors gain from dynamic learning activities due to contacts to foreign purchasers and exposure to international competition. Vertical diversification out of primary into manufactured exports is also associated with growth since primary export sectors prevalently do not exhibit strong spillovers. Thus, it is to be expected that both horizontal and vertical export diversification are positively correlated with economic growth. Yet there have been remarkably few empirical investigations into the link between export diversification and growth. This paper attempts to examine the hypothesis that export diversification is linked to economic growth via externalities of learning-by-doing and learning-by-exporting fostered by competition in world markets. The diversification-led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function on the basis of annual time series data from Chile. Based on the theory of cointegration three types of statistical methodologies are used: the Johansen trace-test, a multivariate error-correction model and the dynamic OLS procedure. Given Chile\'s dramatic changes in economic policy, time series techniques considering structural breaks are applied. The estimation results suggest that export diversification plays an important role in economic growth.Export diversification, growth, Chile, cointegration

Would MERCOSUR’s Exports to the EU Profit from Trade Liberalisation? Some General Insights and a Simulation Study for Argentina

In this study, MERCOSUR\'s past exports to the EU under the protectionist environment of the period between 1988 and 1996 are examined and an attempt is made to determine MERCOSUR\'s exports\' growth potential in a liberalised EU market. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since tariff and non-tariff trade barriers vary strongly among sectors. The influence of the macroeconomic environment on MERCOSUR\'s exports is examined in a dynamic panel analysis. A simulation study based on a quite comprehensive evaluation of EU trade barriers is performed for the Argentinean case in order to evaluate the impact of EU trade liberalisation.MERCOSUR-EU trade trade barriers sectoral study panel data

Road and Maritime Transport Costs: A Comparative Analysis of Spanish Exports to Poland and Turkey

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of maritime and road transport costs for Spanish exports to Poland and Turkey and investigate the different effects of these costs on international trade. First, we investigate the extent to which maritime and road transport costs depend on different factors such as unit values, distances, transport conditions, service structures, and service quality. Second, we analyze the relative importance of road and maritime transport costs as determinants of trade flows. The data on transport costs are drawn from a new database compiled from primary data sources. The main results of this investigation identify the central variables influencing road and maritime transportation costs: for both modes, transport conditions are strong determinants, whereas efficiency and service quality are more important for maritime transport costs, and geographical distance is more important for road transport. Road and maritime transport costs are important explanatory factors of exports and they seem to deter trade to a greater extent than road or maritime transit time when considered endogenously determined.Transport costs, transport mode, Spanish exports, international trade

Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur- European trade flows

This paper applies the gravity trade model to assess Mercosur-European Union trade, and trade potential following the agreements reached recently between both trade blocks. The model ist tested for a sample of 19 countries, the four formal members of Mercosur plus Chile and the fifteen members of the European Union. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. We find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, infrastructure, income differences and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows.Gravity equation, panel data, infrastructure, integration